What is the essence of the Nevu'ah for Mo'av?
Rashi: Sancheriv will come against Mo'av and exile them - "b'Shalosh Shanim ki'Shnei Sachir v'Niklah Kevod Mo'av" (16:14).
Malbim: It is a metaphor for the fall of Mo'av, and the slackening of its Giborim. It is as if after they plundered two great cities on its border, Ar and Kir, they still did not sense [the danger]. After they conquered Nevo and Meidva in the middle of Mo'av, they were agitated, but not for war, only to cry, like weak women who do not muster strength to fight. Only after the enemy conquered a large part of the country, and destroyed Cheshbon and El'ale, the glory of Mo'av, its Giborim were aroused to war. It was in vain; they already lost their strength.
What is the meaning of "Ki b'Leil Shudad Ar Mo'av Nidmah"?
Rashi: Mo'av appeared to be sleeping, and unable to fight. Targum Yonasan (v'Inun Demichin) is like this. Radak - when one is sleeping, he is Domem (silent).
Radak: The plunderer will come at night when they are sleeping, and not guarding from him. "B'Leil" is Samuch; the word to which it is Samuch (night Ploni) is omitted. Alternatively, the Samuch form is in place of the standard form (it should say ba'Laylah), like "El Melech Chizkiyah b'Cheil Kaved" (36:2; it says b'Cheil (Samuch) in front of b'Chayil). Nidmah is cut off, like Shudad.
Malbim: Mo'av was silent; it was not excited [over the conquest of Ar and Kir].
What is "Ar Mo'av"?
Rashi: It is a city of Mo'av. Malbim - it is an open city on the border.
Radak #1: It is called Ar Mo'av, for it is the city of Mo'av (Bamidbar 21:28). Perhaps there was another city Ar (so it needed to specify Ar Mo'av). Perhaps it is Aro'er (Devarim 4:48); its Targum Yerushalmi is Lechayas, like Targum Yonasan here of Ar.
Radak #2: Ar is like Ir.
Why does it say "Shudad Ar Mo'av" and "Shudad Kir Mo'av"?
Rashi: Ar and Kir 1 are two cities of Mo'av. Radak - it is called Ar Mo'av, for it is the city of Mo'av (Bamidbar 21:28). Perhaps there was another city Ar (so it needed to specify Ar Mo'av). Perhaps it is Aro'er (Devarim 4:48); its Targum Yerushalmi is Lechayas, like Targum Yonasan here of Ar.
Radak citing Targum Yonasan: "Kir Mo'av" is the great city of Mo'av.
Malbim Ar is an open city; Kir is a fortified walled city. Both are on the border.