Why will he lie on his right side for Yehudah?
Rashi: Yehudah is in the south of Eretz Yisrael 1 - "v'Achosech ha'Gedolah Shomron? ha'Yosheves Al Smolech" (16:46).
Malbim: Yirmeyah warned them every day that the Churban will come. Hashem revealed His right hand - Hashgachah, to send Nevi'im to them every day.
Targum Onkelos (Bereishis 13:9) of "Im Hasmol v'Eiminah' is 'if you will go to the north, I will go to the south.' This is for one who faces east; the directions were fixed based on the creation of Adam (Ayeles ha'Shachar there). One opinion in Bava Basra 84a holds that Gan Eden is in the east. (PF)
Why will he lie 40 days for Yehuda h?
Rashi: Beis Yehudah sinned for 40 years after Galus Sancheriv until Yerushalayim was destroyed 1 . There were 22 of Menasheh 2 - "k'Chol Asher Asah Achav" (Melachim II, 21:3; Achav reigned 22 years), two of Amon, 11 of Yehoyakim, and this Nevu'ah was said to Yechezkel in Tzidkiyah's fifth year. They delayed six years after this Nevu'ah [until the Churban]. In all, there were eight Yovel cycles (400 years) and 36 years [of sin]. In eight Yovel cycles there are eight years of Yovel and 56 Shemitos, and there are five Shemitos in 36 years; these are 69 years that they did not rest the land. Galus Bavel was 70 years (Az Tirtzeh ha'Aretz Es Shabsoseha" - Vayikra 26:34); also the last Yovel was counted, since in their sin they were exiled from it 3 .
Rashi (5, citing Rav Yosef): The kings of Yehudah sinned for 40 years after Galus Sancheriv until this Parashah was said to Yechezkel. They are explicit below, so I did not need to explain them.
Radak #1: The 10 tribes were exiled in Chizkiyah's sixth year, and after Chizkiyah died, Malchei Yehudah began to do evil. They sinned for 40 years. Even though Chizkiyah's father Achaz was a Rasha, Churban was not decreed until Menasheh - "va'Yachati Gam Es Yehudah b'Gilulav; ? Hineni Mevi Ra'ah Al Yerushalayim" (Melachim II, 21:11-12). Chazal expounded that Menasheh sinned only 22 years 4 . According to this, only 18 years of Yehoyakim and Tzidkiyah are counted. The last four are not, for the land was greatly destroyed.
Radak #2: All 40 years are attributed to Menasheh 5 . He did evil for 40 years, and repented for 15 6 . In his sins, the land was destroyed. If not for the severity of his sins, Hashem would have pardoned the sins that came later. This is why they are attributed to him - "Al Pi Hashem? Lehasir me'Al Panav b'Chatos Menasheh; ? v'Lo Avah Hashem Lislo'ach" (Melachim II, 24:3-4).
Malbim: This corresponds to 40 years from when Yirmeyah began to prophesize about the Churban, in Yoshiyah's 13th year.
Rashi calculates 40 until this Nevu'ah was said, i.e. six years before the Churban! So Rashi said in Vayikra 26:35; he said that Galus Bavel was 70 years, corresponding to 70 Shemitos and Yovelos that they transgressed in 436 years of sin. (PF)
He excludes Menasheh's last 33 years, in which he repented. He counts Tzidkiyah's years, even though he was a Tzadik ? he is among the "Shemonah Nesichei Adam" (Michah 5:4), which include Shmuel, Mashi'ach and Eliyahu (Sukah 52b) ? for his generation was evil (Sanhedrin 103a). Rashi counts Yehoyakim's years, even though his Dor was virtuous (ibid.)! It seems that when the king or the Dor was evil, they transgressed Shemitah; normally, when the king was a Tzadik, also the Dor was. (PF)
I.e. due to their sin, they were exiled and did not fulfill returning land and freeing Ivri slaves in the coming Yovel. Or, they sinned now via intent to transgress Yovel, e.g. they bought fields for their 'permanent' value, for they did not intend to return them in Yovel. Rashi (Vayikra 26:35) does not count the coming Yovel, rather, a sixth Shemitah [in the 36 years] 'she'Nichnesah bi'Shmitah.' Churban Rishon was in Motza'ei Shemitah (Ta'anis 29a)! Perhaps he means that the Isur of Shemitah entered the first years of evil, e.g. Tosefes Shevi'is (Shevi'is 1:4), or they collected loans that the last Shemitah canceled. (PF)
Radak: Refer to 4:6:2:1. Their Drashah is difficult, like I explained in Melachim II, 22:8. (Refer to 4:6:2:4*.)
Why does Radak ignore the two evil years of Amon ben Menasheh? (PF)
Radak (Melachim II, 22:8) asked, if Menasheh repented for 33 years, why was Torah forgotten until Chilkiyah found the Sefer Torah? We can ask similarly if he repented for 15 years! (PF)
Why does it say "Shenis"?
Malbim: The 40 years are included in the 390 above. In the previous sins all Yisrael were partners - also the 10 tribes and those exiled from Eretz Yisrael. This sin of not listening to Yirmeyah was only Beis Yehudah. It says "Shenis", for he already lied [on his left side] for these years. Now he will lie on his right, for sinning against Hashem's revelation of His right hand.
Why does it say only now "Yom l'Shanah Nesativ Lecha"?
Malbim: Lying on the left atoned for Beis Yisrael a year for each day due to the sinners (they have an excuse - Nevi'im did not warn them constantly). This does not apply to Yehudah's sin. Each day counted like a year only because the Navi accepted afflictions.
