Perhaps you can explain the last bit of the Gemorah - even though it could have been expected the exact year that the 2nd Churban would happen, since they didn't know the exact day it would happen, it's considered a totally unexpected event, and therefore Nolad. Unexpected? There was a Mesorah that it might happen on Tisha B'Av, and they were expecting it that year!
Can you explain this to me?
Unless it is expressed for Mussar reasons - that people don't expect the end to come even when it's staring them in the face - similar to Megilla 14a, and the people didn't wake up until Haman go the ring of power.
But that last sentence seems to be the Hallachah - it was Nolad even though people 'knew' the Churban would happen that year.
If you can shed light on this, I would appreciate it.
Akiva Lane
Ramat Bet Shemesh, Israel
The Rambam (Hilchos Yesodei ha'Torah 10:4) writes that a bad prophecy can be annulled if people do Teshuvah.
(If we do Teshuvah, the Mashi'ach will come today -- "ha'Yom Im b'Kolo Tishma'u" (Tehilim 95:7)!)
We should be Zocheh soon to the Binyan Beis ha'Mikdash!
Dovid Bloom
I have looked now in the Mefarshim and here is some of what they have say.
1) The Keren Orah (DH Gemara) cites the Talmud Yerushalmi which tells us that the argument of Nachum ha'Madi in the Mishnah is exactly what you are arguing, Akiva.
Nachum said to the Nezirim, "Do you not know that the Nevi'im prophesied that the Beis ha'Mikdash would be destroyed and therefore it is not Nolad." However, the conclusion of the Gemara is that it is Nolad because they did not know the time of the Churban.
2) However, while you have the Yerushalmi on your side according to Nachum ha'Madi, I think that I have the Rosh Yeshiva of Brisk, Rav Meshulam Dovid Soloveitchik shlit"a, on my side according to the Chachamim.
At the end of Shi'ur 80 on Maseches Nazir, page 311, Rav Solovetchik discusses this, and at one point he writes that there were certainly many people in that generation who said that the Beis ha'Mikdash will certainly not be destroyed. However, Rav Soloveitchik concedes that the Sugya seems to say that everyone knew about the prophecy that the Beis ha'Mikdash would be destroyed that year. Then he cites the rule that an inauspicious Nevu'ah can be annuled, and he concludes that this is why the Rabanan considered this Neder as Nolad -- because people thought that we will do Teshuvah and the Beis ha'Mikdash will not be destroyed.
3) The Chidushei Rabeinu Peretz (cited by the Mesivta edition) writes that when the Gemara says, "Do we know on what day?" this means do we know on which day they started counting the Babyloninan exile. The Gemara in Megilah (11b) tells us that several of the rulers tried to calculate the 70 years but erred. The Gemara there (Megilah 12a) says that Daniel also erred. Rabeinu Peretz writes that therefore they did not know from when to count the 420 years of the second Beis ha'Mikdash; should those years be counted from when the Persians started it, or when Darius (Daryavesh) built it?
4) Further sources that they tried to annul the Gezeirah of Tish'a b'Av:
Of course, the Gemara that we learn on Tish'ah b'Av, Gitin 56a, tells us that Rebbi Tzadok fasted for 40 years so that Yerushalayim should not be destroyed. It is reasonable to assume that the Nezirim hoped that Rebbi Tzadok's fasting would annul, or at least postpone, the destruction.
5) Also, one has to think about what did they say in Birkas ha'Mazon, in the Berachah of Boneh Yerushalayim, when the Beis ha'Mikdash stood? Nowadays, we pray that the Beis ha'Mikdash should be rebuilt, but what did they say when it still stood? (David and Shlomo ha'Melech instituted the third Berachah of Birkas ha'Mazon, and it is d'Oraisa.)
The Chidushei Rashba in Berachos 48b, writes that they requested that the kingship and the Beis ha'Mikdash should stand firmly, and that the tranquility of Eretz Yisrael should continue. The Teshuvos Tashbetz 2:161 also writes that when the Beis ha'Mikdash stood, they asked in Birkas ha'Mazon that it should not be destroyed.
6) Again, since they prayed a few times every day for the continuation of the Beis ha'Mikdash, one can understand how quite a lot of people did not think it would be destroyed quickly.
(See also Peninei Kehilos Yakov, pp. 187-8, by Rav Moshe Mordechai Shulzinger zt'l, in the name of the Steipler Ga'on zt'l.)
Kol Tuv,
Dovid Bloom
Rabbi Bloom,
Thank you for your response.
The Gemara concedes that it was foreseen via the nevua of Daniel that knew what year it would be destroyed. The final line is that the only detail they didn't know was what day it would be destroyed on. We certainly have a mesorah that bad things happen on Tisha B'Av - the date of the Meraglim and the first Churban, and a strong case could be made that such a precedent for a 'bad time of the year' for such things would have been known. Again, the Gemorah concedes that knowing the year of destruction was not nolad - only the day. I think it's hard to understand that it is only claiming that the time of bad mazel around Tisha B'Av time was completely not known, to constitute Nolad. That is my question.
Akiva
It seems to me that the Gemara is stressing that Teshuvah can help right up to the last day.
One can have all the bad omens in the world and all the disastrous Nevu'os, but Teshuvah and Ma'asim Tovim are more powerful than all of that. Even if we have reached the last year, and even the last day -- if Klal Yisrael behaves well and we daven, we will save everything.
She'Nishma Besorot Tovot,
Dovid Bloom